Quarterback Jimmy Garappolo leads the 49ers through the rain in Washington. (Alexander Jones, CC)The 49ers sit at the bottom of the NFC West, worn down by an endless stream of health misfortune that seems to slow to a trickle, getting your hopes up before overflowing yet again.
To say the season is totally over feels dramatic, especially given all of the subpar football the Faithful consumed at the onset of the Shanahan-Lynch regime. Yet it’s become undeniably clear that the title-hungry 49ers, embarrassed in the final minutes of Super Bowl, will end this season feeling empty.
Despite $85 million worth of injuries, the Niners dominated the Patriots, Jets and Rams, showing glimpses of a team worthy of more. Quality players and locker-room leaders like Arik Armstead, George Kittle, Robbie Gould, Deebo Samuel and Fred Warner will all return for a chance to contend again. Kyle Shanahan remains the architect of an ever-evolving system that can maximize the strengths of a prepared and accurate quarterback.
Few situations are as ideal for a quarterback that believes he can take a team over the top. The 49ers demonstrated their belief in Jimmy Garappolo to be the guy with a contract worth $137M after the 2017 season. They stuck with him after an ACL tear in 2018 and were rewarded with last year’s 27 touchdown/13 interception performance. Following a Super Bowl where Garappolo played well enough to win through three quarters before wilting in the fourth, the organization made it clear who they were riding with. Hall-Of-Famer Tom Brady’s offseason interest in the 49ers was not reciprocated and he settled in the NFC. But after a season that leaves the Faithful yearning to wash out their mouths, what should John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan do at the franchise’s most important position?
Jimmy G vs. A New QB
Whenever Jimmy Garappolo gets the chance to review his 2020 season in full, he will not be pleased with what he sees. The raw numbers themselves are unimpressive: 94 completions in 140 attempts (67%) for seven touchdowns and five interceptions. He was sacked 11 times and fumbled twice. He never threw for over 300 yards and in victories over the Rams (268 yds) and Patriots (277 yds) his average pass only went 3.3 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
But a lot of what’s worrying fans that believe Garappolo is “the guy” are intangibles you can’t find on Football Reference. His mechanics suffered after separate sprains of his right ankle in weeks two and eight, resulting in interceptions where the intended receiver was either unclear or had no shot to catch the ball. His aforementioned best games came when the 49ers dominated on the ground and he did not have the come-from-behind magic that fueled last year’s heights. His history of leg injuries is no longer an isolated incident and his ability to move within and out of the pocket in the future is unknown. For a myriad of reasons, many that have nothing to do directly with Garoppolo, the 49ers offense did not find its rhythm under his control in 2020.
While that may seem like a purely negative assessment, there is something to be said for consistency and stability. Garappolo is a respected figure in the locker room and a team captain whose work ethic teammates gush glowingly about. He hosts offseason workouts with a young wide receiver group and has yet to be able to have Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel on the field for a meaningful amount of time. He accepted failure on the greatest stage with accountability and a level head. This season, with all of the Covid-19 complications and lack of normalcy, may be largely unique anyways. If the 49ers are to replace Garappolo, they must consider the impact that will have both on the field and off. While Jimmy hasn’t been what fans envisioned when he signed his deal, the men that play beside him have never wavered in their faith.
Drafting a QB
Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller reported recently that top 49ers scout Adam Peters has attended BYU and Alabama games this season to evaluate Zach Wilson and Mac Jones.
While it’s worth noting that drafting either of these prospects wouldn’t immediately warrant replacing Garappolo, it would be a pretty clear statement about his lack of job security. A young quarterback would have to do a lot quickly to garner the respect of a veteran-laden roster. This is where Shanahan would have to truly shine, making sure his young signal-caller’s preparation and talent can compensate for his inexperience.
I could see the team drafting either of these quarterbacks to back Jimmy up at least initially, but trading up to get a potential day one starter seems unlikely. A quarterback who can’t hit the ground running (or maybe hit the ground throwing?) doesn’t match up with this team’s championship window.
Trade Targets
Quarterbacks that can push your team over the top immediately don’t often come by trade. The 49ers were only able to acquire Garappolo in the first place because he was largely an unknown commodity. Perhaps John Lynch can finesse teams that may want to move on from the contracts of Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan. The 49ers have 8 picks in next year’s draft. All of these quarterbacks will be unrestricted free agents in 2023.
Free Agents
Dak Prescott and his injured ankle will be a free agent at season’s end and if his rehab goes according to plan he should still command a pretty penny on the open market. I don’t see the 49ers getting involved but that is the caliber of player San Francisco desires under center.
Last-hurrah veterans Phillip Rivers, Cam Newton and Ryan Fitzpatrick will be available. Fitzpatrick’s recent play has suggested he might be worth a look, especially if the 49ers draft Wilson or Jones.
Other options include Tyrod Taylor, Mitchell Trubisky, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett and Nathan Peterman. I believe Brissett and Winston have the most upside from that group, though neither has shown much that looks better than Garappolo.
Both Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard will be free agents at season’s end, Beathard unrestricted.
As a player, the 49ers QB in 2021 should…
get the job done on third down:
Matt Ryan’s 2016 All-Pro season remains the standard by which all Kyle Shanahan-coached quarterbacks are judged by. These teams run first and emphasize time of possession. A quarterback that can convert third and manageables through the air allows the run plays to have their greatest impact.
In 2016, Ryan was nothing short of spectacular on third down. He completed 89 of 125 attempts (71%) for 58 first downs, seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. Though he took 16 sacks for a hundred yards, Ryan didn’t turn the ball over once on third down.
Garappolo’s 2019 was also fruitful on third down. He completed 90 of 130 attempts (69%) for 65 first downs, seven touchdowns and three picks. He was sacked 13 times for 79 yards. Though he turned it over more than Ryan, Garoppolo’s third down passes were more likely to be first downs. The signature plays of Garappolo’s season came on third and long, beautiful looping bombs that snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against divisional foes. He threw touchdowns in traffic to Kittle, rushed through Aaron Donald on the goal line and feathered out-route dimes to Emmanuel Sanders, all on third down.
In 2020, third down has exemplified San Francisco’s offensive woes. Garappolo is just 23 of 40 for 17 first downs, four touchdowns, four interceptions and four sacks for 31 yards. His 57% completion percentage is a stark drop-off from first and second down (72%, 70%). Both Ryan’s 2016 campaign and Garappolo’s 2019 featured no such drop-off between downs.
Mullens hasn’t been great either, completing 21 of 32 attempts (65%) for 13 first downs, three touchdowns and two excruciating interceptions.
Whoever the signal caller is in 2021, they have to be able to move the chains and keep opposing defenses from dedicating themselves solely to stopping the run.
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Going forward, Jimmy G’s legs may be worth just as much monitoring as his arm. Two different high ankle sprains on the same ankle is nothing to sneeze at. At times, Garappolo looks tentative and to be avoiding putting force on his trailing ankle and planting knee. The best case scenario is obviously that he returns at full strength after an offseason that doesn’t require surgery. But even if that’s the case, Garappolo has expressed a need to play with his knee brace and is no sure thing health-wise. It’s not like in 2019 Jimmy was Lamar Jackson, but he was able to scramble and pick up seven yards when necessary.
He even ran for a first down three times this season but perhaps the 49ers would be better served with a quarterback the defense must keep tabs on all the time. At the very least, next year’s quarterback must be able to move within the pocket and keep plays alive when the first option isn’t there. The next quarterback for the Niners doesn’t have to be a speedster but he’s got to be able to move better than this version of gimpy Garappolo.
As a leader, the 49ers QB in 2021 should…
be a team captain:
Given his fellow players unanimous support after the Super Bowl, replacing Garappolo would assuredly shake up the locker room. Whoever replaces him would have to also command team-wide respect and uphold the organization’s attention to detail. This is why I can’t see the 49ers drafting a quarterback. The championship window is open and the time is now.
be in the playbook more than anybody else:
This is the number one thing teammates say about Jimmy G. Other than the chirps at his good looks and cool demeanor, the players Jimmy takes the field with continuously praise his commitment to preparation and improvement. This clearly lines up with the culture and expectations the 49ers have for players at every position. If the quarterback doesn’t live in the playbook, how is he supposed to command an offense that allegedly grows every week? How is he supposed to demand his wide receivers know all the nuances of their routes?
It would clearly be a massive shift in the 49ers universe to replace Jimmy Garappolo, whom the Faithful, players and coaches have all placed their title aspirations within. If a change at quarterback occurs, it must be because the 49ers believe Garappolo’s physical tools limit his decision making. It has to be because he cannot move enough for the play to develop or his mechanics never return to more consistent accuracy. That he isn’t making the throws available from the defense because he doesn’t trust himself to be able to. If that’s the case, then other options must be explored. Personally, a swap for Matt Ryan would be my number one target.
But if Garappolo’s health returns and he’s surrounded by a similar treasure chest of talent come next fall, I don’t see any of the readily available options being an appreciable improvement. Brissett’s ceiling projects just as limited if not more and Winston wouldn’t command the respect of the locker room sight unseen. Stafford and Ryan are superior passers but just as costly and nearing retirement.
If the Niners can finally squash the injury bug after two years of bad luck, Jimmy G deserves the chance to show whether his arm, legs and third-down effectiveness are up to the task of taking the Niners over the top.
Mind of Ben 